Olivia vs. Olivia: Predicting the Grammys’ Album of the Year Contenders… and Why Rodrigo and Dean Are at the Front of the Race

Hope you like the sound of the name “Olivia,” because you’re going to hear it again and again — and probably again — at the 2027 Grammys ceremony. But which Olivia? Ah, now, there’s the rub… and a bet we’re going to hedge, at least until the forecast comes into clearer focus, if indeed it does, when the nominations are announced Nov. 16. But even with the Feb. 7 ceremony still being exactly four months away, some bettors are already laying odds on either Olivia Rodrigo or Olivia Dean to take a lead in the race toward the noms or final wins.

Not that we are ruling out divas who happen to have a different first name, like Taylor Swift and Ella Langley, or a couple of contenders who only carry a single name professionally, Raye and Rosalía. But unless Noah Kahan turns out to be as big of an awards sleeper as he has beena commercial blockbuster, the one thing we can almost conclusively about the top four categories this far out from the ’27 Grammys is that a man will not be winning any of them. The slogan “the future is female” may seem a little overly optimistic when it comes to making a projection about society in general, but when it comes to music, and especially the quality of music rising to the level of Grammy consideration… Welcome to the matriarchy, and may the best woman walk away with an armful.

For this particular column, we’re looking at Album of the Year and who stands the best chance at landing one of the eight slots, from a vast field of hundreds of aspirants. We’ll move on to the other big three — Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist — in the days to come. Voting opens to Recording Academy members on Oct. 12 and closes 10 days later, with the nominations then coming Nov. 16, allowing just enough time for everyone’s nervous stomachs to settle by Thanksgiving.

Although the Grammys have pared the list of nominees in the top categories down to eight, from 10, we’re just tentative enough about our predictions to name an alphabetical field of 10 we think most of those eight finalists will be pulled from. Then we’ve named 10 more we consider close calls that also stand a decent chance of slipping in… followed, in passing, by 20 wild cards, any of which might not come as a complete shock, given how impossible the Grammys are to truly nail down.

TEN LEADING CONTENDERS, ALPHABETICALLY

TEN MORE THAT COULD GET IN

And 20 more that are also coming up for mention as possibilities, in no particular order: the 2025-26 albums by Geese, Justin Bieber (“Swag II” fell into this eligibility period), Kehlani, Charli xcx (with “Music, Fashion, Film” being her submission, not the also eligible “Wuthering Heights”), Gracie Abrams, Jill Scott, Steve Lacey, A$AP Rocky, Jacob Collier, J. Cole, Cardi B, Pink Pantheress, the Rolling Stones, Ari Lennox, Mitski, Luke Combs, Mumford and Sons, Foo Fighters and Mavis Staples.

First question: Whither the men: You can count the dudes who held a lot of mainstream fan or industry traction going into the fall of ’26 on one hand: Noah Kahan, Bruno Mars, Harry Styles, BTS and Drake. It doesn’t help with the representation here that the latter two artists have officially disqualified themselves from the Grammys — BTS, by backing out in protest of the addition of an Asian pop category, which they apparently understood to be a potential consolation prize for any past or current slights in the big four, and Drake, who just quietly continues not to submit himself. That leaves Kahan, Mars and Styles as the big male qualifiers… along with Paul McCartney, whose extremely well-reviewed album would have been a shoo-in in the decades when the Grammys leaned toward respect for the elders, but is a longer shot to squeeze in now that ageism is more in play.

Kahan and Mars look like shoo-ins for noms, at least — and Harry fans may feel that he ought to be, too, especially considering that his last album, “Harry’s House,” actually won this prize. But as singles go, “Aperture” was far from an “As It Was”-level grabber, and that may factor into how the album has been and is being perceived, with the lion’s share of goodwill swarming the lion’s share of goodwill swarming around his live global residencies more than the likeably vibey record he is ostensibly touring behind. So a nomination may be a nail-biter for Styles supporters.

That’s also true for Madonna fans who have plenty invested in seeing her come back here. The problem for “Confessions II” is that, after a huge rush of support upon release, it quickly descended in the charts, and didn’t generate any hit singles. But given that she has not been nominated for album of the year since 1999, there may well be a feeling of: if she’s not going to get a nom for this perceived qualitative comeback, then when? Musgraves, a winner in the category in 2019 for “Golden Hour,” is also a decent candidate to make it back into contention for her very well-received return to a country-er sound, but there’s just so much competition this year that a nomination is on the bubble.

As for Ariana Grande, her fans will tell you that the Grammys have it in for her in the best of years, so it would be ironic — but not totally unforeseeable! — if she got a nod for a more polarizing album than some of the more universally acclaimed ones that have gotten snubbed in the category. In a just world, meanwhile, Lily Allen’s work of confessional genius would easily sail in and give her a first-time nod, but we do know that in some cases the arc of the world bends toward injustice. Bridgers is another case where there’s a big question mark as to whether universal critical support and a fandom that has grown into multi-night arena sellouts is enough to get in. It ought to be, and “Punisher” got a nomination when she was less of a household name than she is now, five years later. So will “Lost Weekend” also get into the mix, or split the vote, among people who just vote for masterpieces, with Rosalía’s also 100%-tastemaker-approved “Lux”?

If we wanted to predict future successes based on past results, one thing we could look at in which of the artists seen as being in contention for Album of the Year were nominated with both of their past two solo albums. There are three, out of our top 20 picks, who fall into that category: Brandi Carlile, Rodrigo and Swift. That’s enough to make us think Carlile has a strong shot at getting nominated yet again, although being historically Academy-beloved may not make her a certainty in keeping the streak going. Another factor you could take into account is how many of our top 20 have won Album of the Year twice before. Only two in contention this year can claim that honor: Mars and Swift (who holds the all-time record with four AOTY wins). Mars is practically a lock to make it in again, even if the very, very retro “The Romantic” didn’t have the broad consensus of popular support that “24K Magic” did, and he may stand a better chance for record or song.

So what about Swift? A nom for “The Life of a Showgirl” is nearly a foregone conclusion, so the only real conjecture is what its odds are for winning, which is a question we can address further toward the final lap. It feels possible, if not likely, that voters might actually hold her record number of wins against her, feeling like giving it to her a fifth time (and for a second consecutive album) would be gilding the lily. It was the biggest album of the year, but also, in its mostly sunny disposition, more polarizing than many of its predecessors. The real narrative for Swift, anyway — and Grammy voters are susceptible to a good story — will be in the Record and Song of the Year categories, where she has not won once, and genuinely counts as historically robbed.

It’s always fun to consider a sweep across the board of the top four categories, which, of course, can only happen if someone happens to qualify for Best New Artist. Probably no one in the world is yet willing to place a bet on Ella Langley or Sienna Spiro pulling off an album win on top of BNA and possible wins for their breakout signature songs, but stranger Cinderella stories have happened. The depth of Langley’s support is unknown, and country has been given a raw deal in the top categories by the Grammys for decades now. She’s obviously going to be a top contender in the Record and Song categories, and the love not just for “Choosin’ Texas” but followup smash “Be Her” and some primo album tracks has definitely translated to widespread adoration for the projects. Surely the Nashville Academy membership, un-unified as it has sometimes been, will band together to offer enough support to get “Dandelion” into the category, which, for the twang-averse Grammys, will be saying a lot.

Will it just come down — as we suggested at the beginning — to a Dean vs. Rodrigo smackdown here? Very possibly, and we can address the full merits of the case for either when we’re closer to the ceremony. Just suffice it to say that both of their projects have broad cross-generational appeal, although Dean’s timeless grooves might be more squarely in the pocket for older voters, whereas Rodrigo has a dad-rock factor going for her. Anyway, both projects are excellent to the point of general undeniability, and if we were jumping ahead to pit these two albums against each other today, it’d feel like a toss-up. Rodrigo is in the sweet spot of having been nominated for her first two albums and then coming back with her third as her most acclaimed, against most odds. “You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love” is kind of at the nexus of “She’s a little bit overdue” and “She’s still getting better!,” which is one sweet intersection. A Dean win, meanwhile, would feel more like an instant coronation, since she’s only had one nomination prior to this year … a nomination for Best New Artist last year, which, you haven’t forgotten, she handily won, in a foretaste of the more massive crowning that may be in store for her this time.

Just an early word to the wise: If your name is Olivia and you are a superstar Grammy contender, have some practice sessions at home where you hear winners’ names read and do not jump out of your seat till they get to the fifth syllable.