2026 College Football Week 1 Expert Picks: Back Oregon, Houston To Win Big

It's Week 1, and I'm feeling like I have my Ducks in a row already. Get it? If not, you will by the time you finish reading this. Here are my best bets for Week 1 of the college football season. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Houston is off a 10-win season in Willie Fritz’s third year at the helm, and eyeing a Big 12 conference title and a Playoff trip. Oregon State, meanwhile, has bottomed out since Jonathan Smith left for Michigan State, and now it is starting over again with first-time head coach JaMarcus Shephard. Houston’s returning profile should lead to a fast start. It returns a head coach, both coordinators, 71% of its offensive production and 58% of its defensive production. Quarterback Conner Weigman is back under center after throwing for 25 touchdowns with nine interceptions. His offense finished just outside the 40 in SP+ efficiency and projects to be much better this season. The Cougars' run game needs improvement from last year to this one, but Houston went into the portal to grab some new runners and new offensive lineman. The Cougars' offense is facing an OSU defense that was surprisingly good on third down last year, but didn’t hit the quarterback or stop explosive plays. It has some returning production up front and at linebacker, but has to replace the secondary. It’s hard to know what to expect from the OSU defense, but I do know that Houston’s offense is far more talented that Beavers unit. On the other side, Oregon State’s offense is going to struggle on Saturday. It named former Mercer quarterback Braden Atkinson as starter. I’m generally out on FCS quarterbacks making their first start in FBS football against a power conference defense. We just saw this play out in Week 0 with TCU starting a Harvard quarterback transfer. Oregon State also saw its productive skill players leave in the portal, and it’s a bunch of unknowns to pair with Atkinson. As for the offensive line, who knows, man. Some returners. Some portal. It struggled last season. Houston’s defense last season was excellent in efficiency and in the red zone, but did struggle stopping the run. However, I'm not concerned about this OSU rushing attack. In addition, Houston’s secondary is the strength of the team, and I’d expect it to stop any passing attack from the Beavers. Lastly, this game is a noon ET game outside in Houston. It’s currently in the mid 60s in Oregon. It’s going to be hot and an early body clock game for the Beavers. Expect the Cougars to roll. USC scored 35 points midway through the third quarter against San Jose State in Week 0 before it removed the starters. USC did not generate many (or any) explosive plays and still moved the ball with ease using a simple game plan. I’d imagine USC opens up the playbook a bit more on Friday night, and while Fresno State’s defense is far better than San Jose State's, it doesn’t really matter in my opinion. USC has scored whatever it wanted against Group of Six opponents with Lincoln Riley in charge. Fresno State’s offense needs to improve from last season, and it is hopeful that quarterback Jayden Mandel is the answer. Mandel missed the 2025 season but provides the Bulldogs with some scheme options with his ability to run. The featured group is the running backs, and the offensive line profiles to be very good. USC’s defense played well early on against San Jose State, but we saw the depth once the starters went out. USC also didn’t sack or pressure the San Jose quarterback all that much. If I can get two touchdowns from Fresno State, I should get home here. Give me the Over. Simply put, as an Oregon fan (and alumnus), I’d be upset if we didn’t win by four touchdowns. Oregon is potentially the best team and best roster in the country, meaning this game should not be close. Oregon’s offense should be able to score whenever it wants, even with a change at coordinator. Quarterback Dante Moore should be ready to start his Heisman campaign with a full set of healthy skill guys. There’s some unknown with the offensive line, but Boise State’s rushing defense was very poor last season. Boise State’s pass defense was excellent, but it replaced multiple starters. It should not be able to match Oregon's speed. It's unlikely Boise State is able to score much against the Oregon defense without some help. The Ducks' defensive line is the best in the country and BSU has to replace multiple all-conference offensive linemen. Boise State relies on its run game to help the quarterback, who is up and down at best.